Forbes Article: What's in a Name?... Mar 8, 2013; Patrick Riche  https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2013/03/08/whats-in-a-name-try-history-brand-affinity-as-new-big-east-stands-shoulders-above-america-12/#723bbcb56355

In professional sports, sometimes players take less money in order to increase their odds of winning a championship (or) in order to enhance their long-term legacy.  LeBron James for example.

In this case from collegiate sports, (C7/Big East) a collection of schools with like-minded philosophical and academic missions have opted to leave money on the table and receive less media money initially in order to protect the long-term legacy of their brand value of their conference name.

And in the long run, they will profit from this wisdom.

Don’t listen when you hear Big East people say this isn’t about money. Expansion is always about money and after getting steamrolled for years by former football partners Boston College, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, everyone should know the score. UConn will pay an entry fee to the Big East ($3.5 million), but that’s usually deducted from future earnings. More importantly, TV partner Fox Sports certainly pushed for this. Word is the addition of UConn can trigger a clause in the Big East’s deal with Fox and re-open talks on a contract that has six years to run. This will mean a bump from the current $4 million or so per school TV payout; perhaps an additional $2 million per school.

In my short piece, Window of Opportunity on 24 June 19, I cited the following quote from Holyland of Hoops (HLOH).

 

Over on the Big East message board, HolylandofHoops.com, under the thread: Reputable Barnyard poster, Moderator Jet915 reposted an anonymous UConn member.  I found this post notable as this anonymous individual spelled out his ideas.  Notably his take on contract renegotiations was very interesting.

by Jet915 » Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:07 am

This is an interesting post:

I was an insider here many, many years ago. I haven’t posted here in over half a decade, but decided to check in on Friday, when I got word UConn was going to get an invite. And honestly, a lot of the responses/reactions are surprising. So I wanted to offer some feedback and maybe a ray of hope for those that feel this is the wrong move.

Just as an fyi, my clients are people at ABC/ESPN, Fox, CBS, inside the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and Big Ten (but not the Pac-12 or NBE). So while I’m not privy to every detail, I know & understand a lot of the mechanations of realignment.

First, for those believing UConn shouldn’t have given up the P5 dream..that dream was never going to come to fruition. Unfortunately, P5 realignment is all about dollars. And dollars are delivered by eye balls. Simply put, UConn doesn’t deliver the eye balls necessary to justify the paycheck they’d receive from a conference like the ACC or Big 12. The Big 12 vetted UConn heavily a number of years ago. What they learned was UConn’s value to their TV partners (ABC/ESPN/Fox) was well less than the paycheck they would have to pay UConn as an equal member. This is why the Big 12 came out and announced they were vetting schools, then opted to not expand. Point blank, their partner networks came back and said the per team payout would drop if they added UConn, UCF, USF, BYU, Houston, Cincy, or Memphis (the 7 schools they vetted). Networks run all kinds of numbers when it comes to TV…regional viewership, national viewership, cross-promotional viewership (i.e. fans of other teams that watch your games b/c they either hate you or your Ws/Ls impact their team), etc. UConn’s numbers are way too low, with very little prospect of ever getting them up. It’s just a small fan base where it counts (football). And in case anyone’s thinking the obvious, yes, I would imagine the ACC regrets some of their expansion decisions. The ACC makes less money today on a per member basis than it’d have made had they not expanded with BC, Syracuse and Pitt. Those were really poor additions and the TV numbers in their regions and within their fan bases has been abysmal.

Second, the NBE has outperformed their TV contract handily. And not only have their TV #s been way better than forecast, they’ve won 2 National Championships in the last 4 years. So the conference’s contract is way under-valued. The problem is, they signed a long-term contract that doesn’t expire until spring 2026. The only way their contract can be opened back up for revaluation by Fox, is if there is a change in their membership. Adding UConn allows the Big East to bring their contract up to market value based on the Big East’s performance on TV the past 5-6 years + UConn’s value. So that contract is going to seriously, seriously jump in value. And, UConn is going to provide a significantly greater boon to the NBE’s TV payout than they ever would have in the ACC or Big 12, simply b/c if you look at the historical ratings for basketball, the highest annual TV rating (b-ball) for most programs in the OBE was against UConn. The NBE adding UConn for basketball would be a poor man’s version of the Big Ten adding Notre Dame for football. There’s so much history & bad blood there, the ratings will be outstanding. So if you’re looking at the current AAC payout and comparing it to the current NBE payout, and thinking “this sucks, what the **** are they thinking?!?!…..when the dust settles, UConn will make MORE money in the NBE (+ whatever they do for football) than they were making in the AAC. 

Both ESPN and Fox, particularly Fox have escalated contract payouts in recent years…the Pac12 and B12 in 2012-13, and the B1G in 2017.  The combined B1G contract was approx $2.64 Billion/6 years combined with the 2 carriers.  An average of $440 million annually over the next six years.  The agreement nearly triples the (B1G) conference’s annual broadcast revenues. According to the SBJ report, Fox and ESPN will (each) broadcast roughly 25 football games and 50 basketball games each season.  https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/2016/06/20/big-ten-tv-fox-espn/86135546/  Football, while the major factor, is not a $2 billion factor. Current payouts should reflect the current inflationary costs and per game payout levels.  Therefore the current market value for basketball, while not saying that basketball is equal to football, has increased substantially.

GW11’s (HolylandofHoops.com) $400K a game estimate of current market value for basketball tallys out to 330 games/year @$400k = $132Million x 10 years =$1.320 Billion. $12M/school/yr.  That is quite the jump from the BE’s original (current) $140k x 300 games, $42M x 12yrs=$504M or $4.2M/school/yr.

$100k/gm x 330gms = $33Million ($330M over 10 years) or $3M/school/yr
$150k/gm x 330 = $49.5Million ($495m over 10 years) or $4.5M/school/yr ($4.125M/yr over 12 years)
$200k/gm x 330 = $66Million ($660M over 10 years) or $6M/school/yr
$300K/gm x 330 = $99Million ($990M over 10 years) or $9M/school/yr
$400K/gm x 330 = $132Million ($1.32Billion over 10 years) or $12M/school/yr
At $500k/game $165Million ($1.65 Billion over 10 years) or $15M/school/yr

From the 2013 contract view, $500M/12yrs, it appears as though the Big East (BE) was getting around $140k/gm. In looking at the BFieldHusky/Kevin McNamara quote above, even their guestimate of $200k/game or $66 million a year/$660M over 10 years, or $6M/school/yr seems a low figure.

I am not trying to place the BE as an equal to a football five conference.  I am saying that based on an excellent track record of achievement, the Big East deserves to get current fair market value for its content.  Even our bottom tier is showing well – St Johns made the NCAAs and DePaul finished over .500 and made a postseason run.  If the current fair market, per game value is in GW11’s ballpark ($300-400K/game), the BE conference will at least double its TV revenues.

If talking $300K/gm x 330 games; $595M over 6 years or $990M over 10 years – $9M/yr/school.  Or if the figure is $400K/gm x 330 games; $792M over 6 years or $1.32 Billion over 10 years – $12M/ yr/school.  With this level of respectable tv revenues, the Big East can continue to compete at the highest levels…for now.

Fox Sports makes it’s money off advertising…I’ll take a wild guess that their rates have climbed over the last 6 years along with their ratings. They have made a killing off sports and when you add in the early lowballing of contract bids, like ours, their network earnings look like Uncle Scrooge’s vault.

It’s about time for a financial course correction for the Big East.

If these predictions are up it must be 15 August 2019.  

Keys to Success:  Think Big.  Put the Past behind you.  No Fear (God is with you).

…and Consistent best efforts.

Quoting the great Steve M. Sipple @HuskerExtraSip Lincoln Journal Star:

“Those games on Fox look extraordinary…… everything about the Creighton gameday atmosphere on TV screams big time”.

“When I watch those (Creighton) games……incredible atmosphere….court looks fabulous…….it looks big time….because it is big time….”

It really is August, already.  Time again for git’s annual predictions.  There’s a lot to be said for continuity and consistency, as you’ll never reach a goal if you quit.  These August 15th predictions here are the official ones I’ll run with all year.  The prelim April thru July stuff is just fodder for message boards and warmups.

Two seniors, 4 juniors, and the fellas.  What a talented and underappreciated group of ballers we have this year.  Poor talking heads…ahem, how little they know.

Marcus Zegarowski (11) of Creighton is guarded by James Akinjo (3) of Georgetown in the 2nd half.

Our guys have enough returning experience in Davion, Damien, Ty-Shon, Mitch, Marcus, and Jake, to settle down the newbies and to make the next step up.  Add to this core group the 2 transfers in Denzel and Kelvin and we have a very experienced and capable group of 8 seasoned players.  I like this group.

UTEP Athletics

Creighton Athletics

Antwann Jones has to sit and will be a blessing on the scout squad, but the rest of the newbies have the potential to contribute this season.  Shereef has been in the weightroom, getting stronger.  Jalen is working out as well.   I suspect that the frosh will surprise us all with their contributions this season.

I expect Ty-Shon to be his consistent self and breakouts from Denzel, Mitch, and Jacob.  I see Ty-Shon as a potential BE PoY candidate.  Davion should show both offensive and defensive maturity at the PG/SG with more passing/less dribbling.  The big wings (Damien & Denzel) will bring inside-outside game to the party, as well as 3 point shooting.

This should be a balanced offensive team, with any of the four positions (2-5) being able to torch the opposition.  Marcus will run the show and I expect him to bring  leadership to the PG spot as a score 1st PG.

Several preseason polls (USAToday, CBS, Athlon Sports, 3MW – 3 Man Weave) have the Jays in their top 25’s and a few more (ESPN, Busting Brackets, NBC) also have them on the cusp of rankings.  This is primarily due to the number of returnees, starters, and scoring that CU has back.  Always good to see others recognizing the talent on the team.  In fact 3MW’s Matt Cox goes gtmo in his take… https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/creighton-preview-2020  Lunardi’s latest has the Jays a 5-seed, which has them as 2nd in the Big East.

With our shortage of bigs I would not expect a wholesale switch from the current 4 out & 1 under uptempo and transition pace we have come to know and expect.  I do expect to see Kelvin get substantial minutes of PT as there may still be questions with Jacob.  With the departures of Martin and Sam we have subtraction at the 4 & 5 spots.

My concern, like many other folks, is whether we have enough bodies to weather the seemingly typical Creighton injury spate.  If Jacob and Kelvin can stay healthy this team can be really good.  However, until shown that the 3 bigs will be reliable, I have no choice other than to apply some brakes to my predictions.

Defensively, Davion, Damien, and Denzel will bring intensity and grit to this team.  I also see less “ole” defense from our Bigs and SGs.  With the athleticism and length of our guys, this 2019-20 squad has the capability to be one of our better defensive teams.  They don’t necessarily need to be a Top 20 defense…but if they are top 40-60 it should be enough to be respectable.  Defensive toughness, in select spots and times, ability to stop runs, and the ability to force TOs when needed, can make this team a unit tough to beat.

Now, let’s get to it!

2019-20 Big East projected final standings…*

1. Villanova: It would be silly to bet against Jay Wright’s program at this point, but the Wildcats have more than a name and pedigree this season. They’re loaded with talent and experience with a great recruiting class. They’re not in the top-tier of national title contenders this preseason, but they’re not far behind, either.

2. Seton Hall: The distance between Villanova and the Pirates is relatively narrow, with Seton Hall returning a ton of talent from last year’s NCAA tournament 10-seed. Myles Powell is a difference-maker on both ends, and it’s far from a one-man squad. This group will have to improve, but it’s got the profile of a team that’s capable of making a significant leap.

3. Creighton: This is a team that will be knocking on the door of preseason top-25s on the strength of a solid-though-not-remarkable returning core. Ty-Shon Alexander is a serious breakout candidate, if such a distinction fits for a player who averaged nearly 16 points per game last season.  The additions of Ctr Kelvin Jones and SF Denzel Mahoney, if reasonably productive, can make the difference between 2nd and 4th place conference finishes for the Jays.

4. Xavier: The Musketeers aren’t all that different than Seton Hall, with talented returners from a good team needing who fit the bill of a team on the rise. It’s easier said than done, and they’ll have to deal with increased expectations, but this team has the chops to be the best in the conference if things break their way.

5. Georgetown: The Hoyas were really fun to watch last season, but the trick for them is going to be making the transition from entertaining young squad to a still-green-but-successful team. The easiest path to that would be improved shooting as the youthful Hoyas struggled to connect from distance consistently.

6. Marquette: The Golden Eagles may have been the favorites to win the conference had the Hauser brothers not elected to transfer, but their departures throws this season into question for Marquette. The cupboard is obviously not bare even beyond Markus Howard, who might just power the program to near the top of the league on his own, but it’s certainly a harder team to peg.

7. DePaul: The Blue Demons got over .500 last season, but it came on a diet of non-conference cupcakes and then four wins in the CBI. With the addition of transfers PF/Ctr Carte’Are Gordon (SLU), PF Darius Hall (Ark), possible play (with waiver) of PG Charlie Moore (KU), and a standout frosh class incl. Top 100 recruits Romeo Weems and Markese Jacobs,  here’s betting DePaul equals or betters last season.

8. Providence: Alpha Diallo is one of the conference’s best and most productive players, but the Friars have to improve offensively if they’re going to get back to the NCAA tournament after a five-year streak was snapped last season.

9. Butler: The Bulldogs are probably the best candidate to outperform these rankings, on the strength of Kamar Baldwin’s talent alone, but they just haven’t proven enough beyond Baldwin to slide them further up the list.

10. St. John’s: Mike Anderson has his work cut out for him after Chris Mullin was only able to get a First Four appearance in four years with the Red Storm. St. John’s has only been in the NCAA tournament proper twice since 2005.

*Used NBC's list with rearrangement to suit me.

Courtesy: Creighton Athletics

Creighton  

Non conference slate  –  10-3**

2019-20 Creighton Men’s Basketball Non-Conference Schedule

Incomplete non-conference Schedule courtesy of White and Blue Review.
Dec. 30 Big East opener…vs

Iowa/Texas Tech ranked.

** Initially only had a loss @ASU, but revised non. conference slate record pending the reliability of our 3 bigs.  If 1 or 2 sustain injury, this season will tank along with them.  Also revised conference finish from 2nd to 3rd place.

*** I am limiting my selecting of post season awards to my Creighton selections above.

Unmarked photos all courtesy of Creighton Athletics.