Bluenotes Short Riff – 21 January 2016

Short Riff
Stay focused…Stay hungry!

Courtesy: Creighton Athletics

Lots going on.  http://gocreighton.com/index.aspx

WBB is off to a10-9/4-3 start. Play Big East leading Depaul (14-6/6-1) tomorrow.  The Jays have battled injuries and are on a current 4 game win streak.

MBB  The Bluejays are currently 13-6/4-2 (5th), fluctuating between 2nd and 5th as league play gets earnest.  CU beat DePaul (7-12/1-6) on Sunday and await a visit by Butler (13-5/2-3) this Saturday. The league is getting bunched in the middle and the Jays are entering a less arduous portion of their schedule.  CU has the opportunity to improve and solidify their position in the top tier over the next 2-3 weeks.

MBB recruits Davion Mintz (2016) @Mintzy404 and Tyshon Alexander (2017) @5Tyshon
are both having phenomenal seasons…Playing hard and well, reaping awards.  Great work guys.

The Season
Who’d a thunk it?  After all the preseason prognosticating and guessing, it looks as though the experts were wrong.  The vast majority of pundits, media talking heads, experts, and even fans had Creighton cemented in as the 9th place owner in the Big East.  Surprise, surprise – evidently the Jays didn’t receive those emails.

The Bluejays have played pretty well overall and appear to be taking to heart the coaching and game lessons to date.  The previous statement is an obvious understatement given that CU started conference play last season with a 0-8 record.  Even with the “shellshock” game versus Villanova and the last second loss to Providence, this team is gelling and coming together.  Geoff’s play in the pivot, Mo’s acclimation to bigtime basketball, and the end of slumps by our shooters…the Bluejays are getting better as the season progresses.  The players now know they have the talent and teamwork to compete and to win in the league.  Butler is in freefall at the moment, although fortunately still ranked in the polls. Creighton has the opportunity to pickup a much needed signature win before the Bulldogs fall out of the polls.  The league leaders are beating up on each other as I predicted upon seeing the conference schedule. Coach Mac and the Jays are in position to Shoot Ducks in a Carney…one by one as the reeling opposition pops up on their view.

As the league race enters the backstretch, I will stick with my take – the Jays go 5-2 or better between now and 13 February.  By my estimation the team should have 18/19 w’s at the clubhouse turn and entering the tough homestretch run.  Of course, ever the optimist, I will be calling for the vaunted late season “Creighton Run” to close out the regular season.  I am looking for Creighton to be leading at the quarter pole mark.  We shall see.

Courtesy Creighton Athletics

The annual Coach’s vs Cancer mens game is on the 30 Jan 2016, vs Seton Hall. WBB Jays Cancer game is on ?? Jan 2016 vs ??
The annual Pinkout Jersey auction is on now until 30 January.
http://www.ebay.com/sch/americancancersociety/m.html?_nkw=&_armrs=1&_ipg=&_from=

Shoutout to my guys…Keep Grinding!

BigMuddy

@JustinPatton17




Go Big Blue!


Courtesy Creighton Athletics





2015-16 Previews:  WBR MBB player bios. www.whiteandbluereview.com  
Great profiles by the WBR team.
BluejayWBB Media Guide is out. http://www.gocreighton.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=89391&SPID=70&DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=210441121&DB_OEM_ID=1000

WBR CreightonWBB player bios.

2015-16 Creighton Women’s Basketball Profile: Freshman forward Audrey Faber Profile: http://whiteandbluereview.com/2015-16-creighton-womens-basketball-profile-audrey-faber/  pic.twitter.com/siADPpVtly
Retweeted by Creighton Basketball

Rush the Court – BE Section.
http://rushthecourt.net

NCAA;  

http://www.ncaa.com 

Omaha World Herald – Bunch of new articles on their Bluejay Today page.
http://www.omaha.com/creighton/

New 2015-16 WBR Articles, game previews, and their postgame recaps.
http://whiteandbluereview.com/

New articles at Creighton Rivals/Bluejay Banter and tweets.
https://creighton.rivals.com/

BECB… 

New articles on Today’s U…
BE Power Rankings:  Published on Monday…
http://www.todaysu.com/category/big-east-today/

Perhaps a new rankings format…

Perhaps a new format…

Rankings and Polls

The current way things are done, with the preseason media polls and rankings, ie; the “beauty contest” methodology, is old, outdated, biased, and flat inaccurate.  It is based on the previous year’s output, so and so’s history as a major team, conference bias, individual voter bias, and hype.  Each year the polls are frontloaded with the perennial favorites and each year several of the favs tank.  However, it takes an act of congress to dislodge them from the polls and an avalanche of wins by unranked teams to enter the realm of the top teams.  This season ranked teams are falling like leaves in November, ten ranked teams lost just this past week, twenty or so in the last 2 weeks.  Perhaps now is the time for change.
“But we’ve always done it like this”.  This is what we know”.  

 A few folks have previously put forth ideas to improve the current setup.  

1)      Wait until after the nonconference portion of the season to assess which are the top teams.  
      In this way we have a 11-13 game history from which to assess SOS, RPI, W/L records, NPI/BPI, and the rest.  By waiting until December to initialize rankings real data can be used rather than, or in conjunction with,  solely what happened last season, eye tests, coaching resumes, and bias.  Who cares what a “so and so coached team” is potentially capable of…what have they done on the court this season.  It took 5 losses, including 3 in a row to finally knock Duke from the rankings this week.  However, using the current predominantly unscientific, preferential, and biased-based methods used by both the coaches and writers polls, Duke will be back in the polls by the following week, whereas a deserving newcomer such as Pitt, Valpo, St Marys, or even Arkansas LR will not get the time of day.
2)      Let the metrics decide who deserves to be ranked
Between Warren Nolan, Sagarin Rankings, Ken Pomeroy, Torval, StatsSheets, TeamRankings, RPI Forecast, Bracket Matrix, and several others, there is more than enough data to compile a metrics driven ranking solution.  Again, by waiting to allow the non conference portion play out, much of the data is available by then, and such rankings would be more accurate.  Now, that is not to say a data driven poll is infallible and such polls would be updated weekly as is done currently.  Several sites already use composite rankings using a handful of these source metrics and others. 
3)      RPI/SOS Stand-alone valuations.  
      Who is playing who?  How many cupcake games does it take to equal one quality game.  By using a 3 year or 5 year composite average RPI/SOS as a base one can assign a beginning December/January value to each team to rate a top 25-50 index.  Current in-year play and their current record then determines a teams up/down movement for the duration of the season.


Other notions for modification or changes in the ratings structure have surfaced over the last several years. None are perfect, including the methodologies in use today, but improvements are needed.