XuDash – I love the way you think. I certainly hope you’re right, or very close.

Just a couple abstract thoughts, perhaps:

[1] Do we have to further discount what we could expect, given the smaller fan bases in the BE v the B1G; and

[2] I read an article that suggested that the Big12 media package will “collapse” to $20 million once UT and OU exit. That has me thinking that it is advantageous to us to at least have our programs mostly located in major cities, particularly in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Conversely, Iowa State versus Oklahoma State playing in basketball may both have larger fan bases than any combination of BE teams, but viewership potential certainly would be at a disadvantage vis-a-vis the BE.

Call me crazy, but IF Gonzaga joins us, taking us to 12, and if UCONN stays with us and doesn’t get uppity again about football, keeping us at 12, and if that leads to $15 million per team per year, I would think you lock that in for another 12 years; you don’t go “shorter term” with figures like that, IMO.

gtmoBlue – Those are great questions. I will defer to greater minds… Gumby, Adoraz, JP Schmack, ArmyVet, hilltopAlum, the Wiz, Kmacker69, Chesty, Novachap, and the Prov, UConn, & Johnnies crews.
They would know better’n me.

However, I will say this:

1. The Big East has a national following, so TV/Cable eyeballs are not necessarily tied to Fanbase numbers. BE Hoops is more Tier 1 than the B1G…as proven by NCAA results. If teams are good, or hot, the percentages of national eyeballs grow for their games. I expect Fox to quibble, rant, rave, exhort, and go to blows, in order to pare down BE content to as much Tier 2 and 3 as they can get away with. However, given they lowballed the shit out of us back in 2013, I expect Val and Stu to hire top-notch cutthroat attorneys and negotiating firms to go to war with Fox. It ain’t personal – just business!

2. a. Fox will bid along with cash-rich CBS and NBC on both the PAC12 (1st up) and Big12 packages. Primarily to keep the wwl (ESPN) from trying to steal both conferences at bargain basement prices. It is not in the best interest of college sports if both former F5 conferences tank. Now take your pick…One of the two will probably fail. If both tank then the new standard Fox set with the B1G, will not stand. So let the pac12 FAIL as it seems in the worse condition, while bolstering the Big12 up. No neither will attain former/current levels of revenues, but not fall totally from graces. $15-20M a year, per school seems about right.

b. With flagship teams/ratings anchor teams gone from both conferences-tv/cable viewership will take major hits.

3. Now see…there you go Dash, thinking like the ACC. That sort of logic is what has cost them their seat at the big boy table. Fox MAY attempt such a move again (long-term deal), but both the ACC and SEC deals have shown that it is not always the best course – the ‘playing it safe’ gambit. The ACC and SEC going the long-term ‘playing it safe’ route vs the Big Ten going the short-term while maxing out content value. Fox now appears to favor short-term deals (6-year contract spans) to maintain flexibility in the current climate, while ESPN appears to still favor leveraged cost, long-term deals. The B1G wanted no parts of anything long-term.

Fortunately, both the Big12/Pac12 negotiations fall prior to ours, so we shall see Machiavellian moves, fluctuations, and sidebar negotiations aplenty prior to our negotiations in 2024. Break out youur popcorn and fav beverages. There will be a freshly minted ceiling and floor for Val and her contract hit team. The view will be splendid from Big East HQ, high above the clouds, in ‘old New York’. (If I can make it there, I can make it, Anywhere. It’s up to you New York, Neeewwww Yoooooorkk!) SORRY, got a bit carried away there.

Now, football is driving and hoops is in the back seat. So hoops tiers will fall – as B12/P12 football is now a shell of their former selves. Only the overrated, underperforming B1G hoops programs will be getting new Tier 1 dinars. The ACC/SEC are locked into long-term deals. B12/P12 will be taking huge hits revenue-wise. Let’s wait for the dust to settle and revisit the landscape. While BEast hoops is deserving of new Tier 1 dollars…it’s going to be one hellacious battle to get them. We need to hire the negotiations firm(s) who are assisting the B1G. Our current tv revs are now new Tier 4. The BEast should be shooting for the new Tier 1 with the acknowledgment that the new Tier 2 may be our ceiling. We have the best hoops content in the country. Anything less than the new Tier 2 is lowballing. We’ve “been there, done that”.

What say you, my BEast brethren?